“The greatest risk doesn’t come from low quality or high volatility. It comes from paying prices that are too high. This isn’t a theoretical risk; it’s very real.” - Howard Marks
The deluge of opinions, stock tips, hot-takes, and dubious forecasts is mind-numbing. Our tools enable you (and us) to cut through the noise by breaking down stock prices into the most relevant valuation insights that quantify Rationality. We don't add to the noise. We are not in the stock tips business. We're in the Rationality business.
Start with your long-term return goal. Can this stock or ETF get you there, realistically? Let our tools do the heavy lifting by bridging the gap between your target return and growth expectations of the business behind the stock(s). It starts by quantifying this: "what do we need to believe about the business to consider buying this stock?"
Most Equity Risk Management tools are backward-looking, short-term oriented, needlessly statistical, divorced from fundamentals and, therefore, unusable. We quantify the most pertinent risk: potential long-term capital loss by overpaying for the stock. This is inherently forward-looking, long-term, fundamentals-based, and actionable.
The Buycaster keeps you rational. It minimizes the very real risk of overpaying for a stock. Punch in a stock ticker, set your long-term return target, and let the Buycaster take just seconds to compute an on overall Rationality Rating. This rating is constructed by quantifying 1) revenue growth expectations we need to believe, 2) the level of believability, and 3) the risk of getting the thesis wrong. Our dashboard breaks it down for nearly 4,000 stocks.
The Fundcaster helps you minimize the very real risk of buying ETFs that hurt your chances of achieving your long-term return target. Punch in an ETF ticker, set your desired return, and let the Fundcaster extract stock-level insights from the Buycaster and roll it up to the fund level. Our approach is: 1) based on deep fundamental analysis at the stock level that's 2) long-term and 3) forward-looking.
In this 1-on-1 service, we generate your custom portfolio report with forward-looking, actionable insights you need to future-proof your portfolio. These insights are rolled up from the Buycaster & Fundcaster to the portfolio level, so they're inherently fundamentals-based. We also provide personalized guidance on how to use our suite of tools, so you can keep your portfolio future-proof going forward.
"The Buycaster allows me to have an informed opinion on any stock my clients throw at me. It saves me tons of time and makes me money."
"I can research tech stocks in minutes - my domain expertise helps, but the Buycaster gives me the peace of mind to hit the buy button."
"I read a lot of equity research reports, but the Buycaster is my go-to Sanity Checker now!"
We bring our experience from Wall Street to Main Street to help you achieve your return target with minimal stress.
Our research process is a tango between the subjective and the quantifiable. We use the Buycaster as our primary quantitative tool at 2 stages during our process, which saves us days (if not weeks).
To avoid stress, we like to invest in companies that will thrive for decades. So, we spend a lot of time analyzing inevitabilities such as Artificial Intelligence & Renewable Energy (and 9 others) to identify leading companies playing the right sport.
We run that list of companies through The Buycaster to tell us which of their stocks are rationally priced. The Buycaster distills each company's financials down to a succinct Rationality Rating.
The Rationality Rating narrows our focus down to 1 or 2 companies that have rationally priced stocks. Now we dig into the company’s story to evaluate whether the company has a: 1) durable competitive advantage & 2) viable growth strategy.
At this stage, we look for congruence between the company’s story and the nuances of its Buycaster Rating. If the company is “comfortable” the story matches the numbers, we usually hit the Buy button if we have room in our portfolio.
Know your return drivers. Know your risks. Sleep well at night.