Why this article?

At The Buylyst, I’ve been digging into 5G since 2018. Here are all the relevant Worldview articles so far:

1. Investing in 5G.
2. Investing in 5G - Idea Screener.
3. Investing in 5G 2019 Update.

So, why another one so soon? I’ll get straight to it. 3 reasons:

1. A surprisingly bullish view of 5G by our top holding: TSMC.
2. One of our “Watch” rated companies – Ciena – getting close to an “interesting” price range.
3. One of The Buylyst’s 5G plays – Lumentum – is approaching its Price Target. As I write this, it has surpassed it. At some point it will need to be replaced, at least partially.

Over the past couple of weeks, I was noticing this apparent dissonance between Lumentum and Ciena. The former says 5G is accelerating sooner than expected, while the stock price of the latter is facing a downward trend. Is there an opportunity here?

So, I decided to get an undigested view of the state of 5G by listening to as many earnings calls as I could. I assembled a list of 8 companies in the 5G arena. They are:

1. 1 Chip Manufacturer: TSMC – this is how it all started.
2. 2 Mobile Phone Service Providers: Verizon and AT&T.
3. 3 Backhaul Equipment Manufacturers: Ericsson, Nokia and Qorvo
4. 2 Optical Components Manufacturers: Lumentum and Ciena

I found some common threads – three in particular:

1. The China Issue.
2. 5G Service Rollout.
3. 5G Handset Sales.

I’ll summarize what I heard from each company regarding these 3 important data points.