The China Syndrome

Published on 05/17/19 | Saurav Sen | 2,125 Words

The BuyGist:

  • The Trump-China trade war is one long, tiring melodrama.
  • Will there be a deal or no deal?
  • The Buylyst Portfolio is positioned to gain from a decision - either way.

The Buylyst and China

It’s been one of the biggest risks in the Buylyst Portfolio – The China Issue. It’s been a constant overhang on the markets – especially on the Tech and Industrial sectors, both of which look to China for growth in their businesses. And both make up large parts of the Buylyst Portfolio. 

Political Risk is an oddball – not only is it hard to quantify, but it’s fickle, transitory, and impossible to time with any degree of accuracy. But I can look back and try to qualitatively estimate the risk it has posed not just to the Buylyst Portfolio but to globally-oriented portfolios everywhere. Since t2017, it’s been one event after another to keep us up at night. For a while, so far this year, the market had hoped for a trade deal. And it manifested in a rally. Now it seems to be losing hope. The latest salvo fired by the Trump Administration – The Huawei Ban – puts a giant wrench in that hope-filled rally. We’ve seen this movie play out before. The Trump-China trade war is one long, tiring melodrama.

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