Investing in Healthcare Part 2

Published on 12/15/20 | Saurav Sen | 2,247 Words

The BuyGist:

  • This is a follow-up of Investing in Healthcare – Part 1.
  • In Part 1, we took a macro view of the healthcare based on demographic shifts and higher spending needs around the world.
  • The goal is to invest in this near-inevitability via one or two companies that have durable competitive advantages in the long-run.
  • As a reminder, our focus will be on Healthcare Equipment & Tech companies, not on pharma and biotech.
  • In this Worldview article, we take stock of what some of those companies are saying about their long-term prospects.
  • We end with a plan of action – companies we would dig into for a full thesis and valuation.

As good as it gets

In the world of investing, we don’t get inevitabilities. We deal in probabilities. Nothing is certain. But sometimes, just sometimes, we find high probability events. And that’s as good as it gets. In our view, the prospect of increased healthcare spending over the next few decades is one such high probability event. In Part 1, our rationale was hinged on these factors amplifying each other, especially in Asia & Africa:

  1. An increase in ageing, “prime healthcare” population over the next few decades…
  2. Rising GDP and GDP per Capita…
  3. Increase in healthcare spend as a % of GDP – to catch up with Developed Countries.

We had concluded that a 5-7% annual growth rate in healthcare demand over the next couple of decades would be a reasonable assumption. This helped give us some context to bottom-up valuations when we get to them – assuming something much higher than 5-7% would be callous unless we find a company that makes a darn good product with no credible competition.

In the next few sections, we take more of a bottom-up view of the healthcare landscape to compare with our top-down view…

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