Investing in Healthcare Part 3

Published on 01/15/21 | Saurav Sen | 1,039 Words

The BuyGist:

  • This is our third installment of our Investing in Healthcare series.
  • In this article, we make an investment decision and explain our rationale.
  • We evaluate our 2 best options – as described in Investing in Healthcare Part 2.
  • We pick our best option.

Decision Time

We went on a couple of reconnaissance missions on Healthcare recently, both from a top-down and a bottom-up perspective. Our objective was to estimate a reasonable, believable revenue growth rate for the Healthcare sector, specifically for Healthcare Technology companies. Our top-down and bottom-up view gave us a range of 5-8% revenue CAGR. We’re inclined to bet on 8 rather than 5.

This range is a good marker for us. We compared it to our estimates of market-implied revenue growth for our list of Healthcare Tech companies. This is straight out of our Expectations Investing playbook – “what do we need to believe to buy this story and its stock?” In the Healthcare space, we will rely on this type of reverse-engineering far more than usual.

In the last Worldview piece on Healthcare Tech, we zoomed into 2 potential investments. In this piece, we’ll make a decision.

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