- We’ve held the stock in our portfolio for a couple of years.
- They report earnings today, so this is a nice primer.
Uber is one of those ultra-techy names that feels a bit like “Waiting for Godot” – promises of profits…at some point…in the future…when it dominates the world…yada…yada…but no sustainable profits yet. The wait continues…
Last time we did a deep dive on Uber, we had estimated their total addressable market to triangulate the upside left in its revenue and free cash flow. By the way, Uber’s free cash flow is still negative, as you’ll see below. So, the obvious question is, “what needs to happen for Uber to finally turn a profit?” For us investors, the real question is “what needs to happen in the business for us to – rationally – expect a decent return?” That’s what the Buycaster quantifies.
Let’s leave the subjective analysis about Uber out for a minute. Let’s see how the numbers pan out. The Buycaster is not human, so it doesn’t do subjective, qualitative analysis. But it does crunch numbers in (what we believe) the right way, so it makes it significantly easier to confirm or contextualize any sort of subjective analysis. If you read on, you’ll be primed to ask the right questions in Uber’s earnings call later today.
In the next few sections, we’ve literally pasted screenshots of the Buycaster’s Uber analysis. It’s not elegant but it does the job for now. For a more elegant presentation, we’d encourage you to open up the actual dashboard. However, we’ve done this here for 3 reasons:
- This gives you a sense of what the Buycaster does, and how (it does this sort of analysis for over 3,000 stocks).
- We’ve recently refined its look and flow. Let us know what you think!
- Hopefully, the next few sections leave you with at least one salient insight.
The following analysis doesn’t include the latest quarterly numbers to be reported today.
OK. Over to the Buycaster…